SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

KAV – You may have noticed a great deal of talk about a Judge Kavanaugh.  And you may have noticed that there's not much news to go with it.  Be careful this week.  The FBI is conducting the ordered, extended background check on the judge, but news organizations have to fill time and space.  And they push a lot of "stories" that are of no significance at all.  We may learn in the next day or so – I have it on the best authority – that Brett Kavanaugh kissed Katie Simmons in kindergarten.  Be prepared for the headlines.  And be prepared for extended discussions featuring "youthful kiss" experts, who will tell us why this matters on the US Supreme Court.  I think we'd all be better served if the news networks would show old travelogues this week, and stop trying to convince us that every minute moves us closer to the end of the Republic.

HEIDI IN TROUBLE – FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER:  A new poll shows Republican challenger Rep. Kevin Cramer leading Sen. Heidi Heitkamp by a 10- point margin, with North Dakotans overwhelmingly in favor of confirming Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court.  Losing a race in North Dakota would make it significantly more difficult for Democrats to retake the Senate.  The poll, from Mason Dixon and North Dakota's NBC affiliate, shows Cramer opening up a 51 percent to 41 percent lead over the Democratic incumbent.  The poll also finds North Dakotans support the confirmation of Kavanaugh by a 60 percent to 27 percent margin. Furthermore, the survey found that at 21 percent, more people rated Kavanaugh as their top concern than any other single issue.   This shows why contests in the states are vastly more important than national polling averages.  We are electing members of Congress in a month, district by district, state by state. 

AND IN MISSOURI – FROM NATIONAL REVIEW:  The heated battle over Judge Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court has hurt vulnerable Democratic senator Claire McCaskill of Missouri in her race for reelection, according to a recent poll.  The poll, conducted by Remington Research Group Wednesday and Thursday, found that 49 percent of the 1,555 likely Missouri voters questioned said they were less likely to vote for McCaskill after witnessing Kavanaugh’s confirmation process, while just 42 percent said they were more likely to vote for her. Notably, 47 percent of women said the Kavanaugh process had made them less likely to vote for McCaskill compared to 42 percent who said the opposite.  McCaskill announced Wednesday evening that she would oppose Kavanaugh’s nomination due to his judicial record, absent any consideration of Christine Blasey Ford’s allegation that he drunkenly pinned her down and attempted to rape her at a high-school party more than 30 years ago.  McCaskill’s opponent, Republican state attorney general Josh Hawley, has been steadily climbing in the polls, and the Real Clear Politics poll average has him behind by just one percentage point.  The Senate is at stake.  If the GOP loses the Senate, judgeships at all levels are in jeopardy.

October 1, 2018